Prediction: Who will die tomorrow? Covid19, data analysis.-And how many lives have you saved already?

Jiska Hachmer
Covid-19 collection
11 min readApr 2, 2020

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I made the first death rate data for Wuhan since the news came out in Wuhan. And tried to find all data together. Then Italy was the next disaster in this COVID19 pandemic, made a prediction for Italy, and tried to compare the two together. Then, I made a prediction for my country, The Netherlands, and that is still accurate and helps us see how many days we slower the infection and death rate, how many lives we have saved. Dutch are still going to fast. Faster than Italy with the amount of infected per day. And have more deaths related to the number of deaths. We did slower our train a few days, but still is going to fast compared to Italy, and China.

This is related to their health beliefs, myths and bias, and crimes at work. Some MD explained it this way, the killers do not even know they are killers, but they kill the people with their myths and bias and behavior. Others are dying because others do not understand and are the reason for spreading this disease.

So, who will die tomorrow? And how many have you saved already?

I am an environmental psychologist, studying BSc. Health Sciences to become an MD, after this degree.

I want to be an MD/psychologist and love data science, research and management.

I have studied more specializations, than only this data specialization, modules and have more diplomas and certificates. And am a known person as a singer, writer and for my companies (past company, and current company).

I started Big Humanity and The School for the Ombudscycle.

Currently, I work on my company and the coronavirus, as I studied social epidemiology, a few years ago, in 2013. And added a lot of studies to this, about the crime at work, and management of people and teams, leading internationally, and health psychology and a lot of other studies, that help people understand Corona and how to behave and what to change to stay healthy.

How many deaths tomorrow for each country

I am still correct with my data for my own country. And we can trace down how much slower or faster we are on our speeding train, COVID19.

  • We can compare our countries to the countries who have been through this for a longer time, now.
  • And we can compare it to all countries.
  • And with the 17 days delay prediction.

This will tell us what to buy, to do, arrange. More equipment, ICU at home, long time a lockdown. And understanding the effect of all we do, as we do also compare all to what we already do. We can see we go to fast, without a lockdown. We can see we go to fast, missing equipment. We can see we go to fast, not understanding social epidemiology, etc. We can even measure the effect when we do start these things, and the speed slows down and we get less infected.

We can also see we have more deaths related to infected than others, and study on this and find out why and change all we do, so fewer people get infected, and fewer people die.

Growth, the speed.

  • infections
  • deaths
  • And in how many days reached, and compared to others.

Total

First day in Wuhan. 31/12 announced, but already there a little while.

31/3 Around 885.000 cases and 42300 deaths, in the world.

In more than 91 days.

And more people would be infected and death without:

  • lockdown
  • testing
  • medicine

It was right away when found out in a lockdown. But the finding out took a little bit, and the people honestly telling it is SARS were jailed, abused, blocked, intimidated, etc.

17 days delay (Wiesbauer, 2020)

And can be a delay of 17 days from infected, to reporting, to death. Infected to symptoms can take longer and without symptoms from infected to report, can take longer.

From the reported average, it takes 17 days to death. So the first delay we will measure is the 17 days delay from reported to death.

17 days delay, is the data from 14/3 156,475 infected and 42,309 deaths of today, is 27,04% death rate.

So, today's 885,000 will have in 17 days 238,950 deaths. We already passed 40.000 deaths today, thus 200.000 more will come. Plus all the new infected and 27% deaths. And with a delay of 17 days.

If we have this different time of getting infected, and different time from infected to reported cases, and there are people with typical symptoms, asymptomatic, and no symptoms, we also have :

  • no reported cases and deaths
  • different delays to death
  • and typical delay of 17 days to death

In 91 + days there are 200,000 deaths. We see just 40,000+ but there are 200,000 deaths related to the 91 days, because of the delay of 17 days average. Plus the amount we do not count and is asymptomatic and no symptoms. That all actually is related to the 91+ days.

If you find this hard to read, or have a tough time during COVID19 7cups.com has listeners. You can also become a listener.

Most people just need a listener, but you can also go to the psychologist for a very low price, and online too.

All countries

I will start with as many countries as I can do now, and will add the others after publishing. I will update and will start with the 17 days forecast with the 17 days delay data. And will add compared to the other countries and predict more precisely per country the next days. And if the speed goes up or down of the amount of infected, and the number of deaths. And try to interpret why.

And I will add the number of lives saved already. By measuring all countries with each other, and see if the speed of infections dropped, and the number of deaths. So, I will compare the first speeding train of infections and the number of deaths that normally would happen with that amount. And then the actual speed of the infected since lockdown etc. And will explain how many saved by using lockdown etc.

That will show people what they have achieved. And will encourage them to do the things we do, and will understand how many lives that saves.

USA

20/1 first case — 31/3 188,530 infected. In 71 days.

17 days ago 2,770 infected. Deaths 31/3 4,053.

Thus there must be more infected, or these people die faster. 146% deaths.

Thus in 17 days, we can expect 50,903 (27% total )— 275,253 (146%)

NY MD tell us in the news, people that come in for totally different things than COVID19, turn out to have COVID19, and is visible on CT scans. This is how they discover them. Coming in for a car accident and then seeing a typical CT scan for COVID19 in the lungs, and then they know the virus is everywhere in a lot more people. So, it is to expect more are infected, thus the number of deaths is higher than 27%.

Italy

First case 31/1. 105,792 infected. In 60 days.

17 days delay: 21,157 infected 14/3 related to 12,428 deaths, 31/3.

Same idea as the USA, a higher rate than the total of 27% deaths. And the USA is even higher than Italy, but for both thus or more infected or faster to death.

58% deaths.

105,792 Infected today(31/3), means in 17 days 28,563 (27% total)- 61, 463(58%) deaths.

Spain

First case 31/1. 95,923 infected. In 60 days.

17 days delay: 6391 infected 14/3. 8464 deaths, 31/3.

Same as the USA and Italy it seems like there are more infected than known. And perhaps die faster than average. The death rate is very high.

132% deaths.

95,923 infected today (31/3), means in 17 days 25,899(27% total)- 126,618(132%) deaths.

China

First case 1/12. To 31/3 is 122 days.

  • The puzzle of 41 in ICU 31/12, and infected with a strange virus. 6 deaths. Normally 50% is in ICU, and a half on respiratory, and a half on ICU die. But with a delay of 17 -27 days possible. 17 days is the scientific Wiesbauer, (2020) delay. And 27 is the max incubation time. First death reported 11/1. First ill 1/12. I think they mean the first death reported with the name of the virus on 11/1.
  • About 82 could have been infected, as the half normally goes to ICU. And not all are to the hospital when infected. And they found 41 in ICU. Then they knew there was a new virus. And 6 died. And the respirators are the place where half on icu go. And half of them make it there. So, 6 deaths mean, 12, 24. 24 infected from 17 -27 days before with covid19. And the rest other days. 6 died and related to 17–27 days before. 17 days Wiesbauer, (2020), and up to 27 days world meter show as possible infected, with their scientific research, shown on the page.
  • So, ill from 1/12 and it would take 17–27 days to be infected, means infected 17 -27 days before. Then the 17 days delay Wiesbauer, (2020) shows 17/12 is the death rate related to 1/12.
  • Then from 17/12, there could have been deaths related to COVID19.

80844 infected 14/3. 3312 deaths 31/3, is 4%

81,554 In 17 days 3262 in total.

So, they had a bit more deaths already, but it started at the beginning with 14%, then a long time 6% and higher, since there was some medicine. And now 4%. So, that is true, and the correct amount. Not many will die anymore.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

France

First case 24/1. To 31/3 52,128 infected is 67 days.

4,499 Infected 14/3. 3,523 deaths 31/3 is 78%.

52,128 infected 31/3 means in 17 days 40,660 deaths.

Germany

First case 27/1. To 31/3 is 71,808 infected in 64 days.

14/3 4,599 infected. 31/3 775 deaths is 16%.

71,808 infected 31/3 means in 17 days 11,490 deaths.

Iran

UK

Switzerland

Turkey

Belgium

Netherlands

Austria

S.Korea

Canada

Portugal

Brazil

Israel

Norway

Australia

Sweden

Czechia

Ireland

Denmark

Malaysia

Chile

Russia

Poland

Romania

Top Deaths rates

  1. USA
  2. Spain
  3. Italy

Discussion

  1. We need to add all other patients now death, because of their care stopped, during covid19. We need the total picture, to make better lockdown plans, and tell all countries what work we need to get done, with this and next lockdown. What is a priority, chasing kids and families, or creating more MD, and more science saving lives? The duty remains, we need to higher the literate mind, and let them work better. Without force. People need to understand a higher idea of care.
  2. We need to study gut microbiome, virus and crime. Also food-related and crimes.
  3. We need all social epidemiology focused on all jobs, to get the right lockdown plans, and to correct tasks done at work. So, we can focus on a plan always functioning, and then have time for all the rest, to get all the rest done best. Including during lockdown, people get bed rest, mind rest, absolute rest, and that can solve traumas. And makes people authentic, autonomous, etc and has a very good side. People can DIY, and be making things, equipment, etc. So, now we work on health psychology, getting people to understand covid19 and viruses, and sciences, science and creating lockdown plans. We will have such a plan as a norm, like hurricane evacuation plans, which are normal too. And will create more details about such a plan, the mental state changes, and the core of humanity, and nature. And realizations of a better life. Not always exploited at work, but at home, the way it should be. We can shift more things, to create a better life in general.
  4. We all can become an MD/ job. MD/ psychologist. MD/cop etc. So, all will find the real causes. A lot of people behave differently when they are ill by a virus or have other physical illness, they are not “criminals” but differently behaving. When we change our view on this, we solve the cause better and have fewer crimes. Also, the hunger-related to crimes will change the way we see criminals and will drop the crime rate.
  5. All should be included in the plan. All countries, and a world plan with viruses, lockdowns, and pandemics. All science top, and all logic with science, so all get only the best and get human rights, equally. And are not forced, enslaved, are kept safe, and are cared for, correctly and with only our best in the world, as this is the world plan. Including ombudscycle so all faults never come back. And including every world citizen. So, also poor countries. The entire same plan. Where all have their human rights to join or not join, and this lockdown that does have a must, for safety. But all done to detail correctly, so all understand, are safe, and least get ill, and least die, and all are not in hunger or lack of basic need. Simply a plan that works right away.

References

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